If you are looking forward to waking up on Christmas morning and seeing New Carlisle blanketed in a layer of snow, you could be in luck this year.
While much of the Midwest missed out on the white stuff last year, it appears that we will be getting a white Christmas in 2016.
According to the National Weather Service, temperatures are not expected to get above freezing between now and the holiday.
Given the seven to nine inches the area received in last weekend’s winter storm, plus a persistent pattern of snow in the forecast, it makes it very unlikely our current snow pack will thaw by Christmas Day.
Meteorologists define a “white Christmas” as one in which there is at least one inch of snow cover on the ground. It does not have to snow on the holiday itself to count. (However, long-term forecasts are currently predicting significant accumulations for Michiana on the 25th)
Based on the latest U.S. Climate Normals from the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, New Carlisle historically has between a 47 and 48 percent probability of having a white Christmas.
This is based on the latest three-decade averages of various climatological measurements from 1981 through 2010.
Nearby major cities like Chicago (37 percent) and Indianapolis (26 percent) have a significantly lower historical probability of at least one inch of snowfall on December 25. Both cities last saw a white Christmas in 2010.
Dating back to 2003, an average of 38 percent of the contiguous United States has seen snow on the ground on Christmas Day. These percentages vary from year to year. For example only 21 percent of the country had snow in 2003.
But in 2009, 63 percent of the lower 48 was covered in snow on Christmas!